Wearing Pitches – A Leo Jimenez Story

On September 16, 2024, Michael Baumann authored an article published on Fangraphs outlining how the frequency at which Blue Jays middle infielder Leo Jimenez is hit-by-pitch has the ability to transform his career. Through September 11, 2024, .281 of Jimenez’s .335 OBP is accounted for through HBP, 13 of a 58 total bases. Baumann goes further in his analysis to conclude that, “Jimenez is wearing roughly one out of every 11 pitches that misses the zone inside, which is the highest mark in baseball by an enormous margin.”

In order to better understand how Jimenez’s HBP rate is so high, Baumann uses video analysis of where Jimenez is positioned in the box, his tendency to ‘turn into’ pitches, along with the of the “capricious” enforcement of Rule 5.05(b)(2) regarding no attempt to avoid being touched by the ball. Baumann raises a valid concern that not all Umpires will be willing to concede first base to a hitter who makes no attempt and, in some cases, may even move into pitches.

As someone biased toward ‘wearing’ pitches, Baumann’s analysis raises a few questions for me. Was Leo Jimenez’s 2024 OBP propped up by his HBP to a rate that is unsustainable over a career or has he mastered the art of wearing pitches inside? There is a degree of randomness that comes with pitches faced in at-bats over the course of the season, let alone a career, and there is a chance that Jimenez’s fWAR of 0.6 is falsely inflated due to a series of random events that are hard to predict moving forward.

I can answer one of those questions right away: Jimenez hasn’t yet perfected the art of wearing inside pitches. The feature photo of this article is from September 22, 2024; just six days after Baumann’s article was published. In a 1-2 count, Jimenez is seemingly hit by a 97 mph fastball from Tampa Bay Ray’s starter Shane Baz, however, home plate umpire Nate Tomlinson immediately shakes his head and gestures to the Blue Jays dugout insinuating they are welcome to challenge the call. The Blue Jays challenged, the call on the field stands, no hit-by-pitch. You can watch the clip below on MLB.com.

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/video/leo-jimenez-not-hit-by-pitch-after-challenge

Jimenez makes it simple for Nate Tomlinson to apply Rule 5.05(b)(2), as there is no attempt to avoid being touched by the ball, there may even be an attempt to be touched by the ball considering the move Jimenez makes with his elbow guard. It appears as if Jimenez still has some refining to do on taking pitches that involved more of a movement AWAY from the ball rather than toward it.

Leo Jimenez was hit three more times to finish the season with 16 total HBP, improving on his rate of 7.5% HBP/PA to finish the season at 7.6%. Having only been recorded in 63 games in 2024 for the Blue Jays; Jimenez was hit in 25% of the games he played in. But what does any of this mean? Ultimately, it is hard to conclude such a small sample size but it does provide a clear path moving forward.

Either this was a fluke and Jimenez’s HBP rate will regress to the mean resulting in a less valuable offensive player, or Jimenez will continue to wear inside fastballs off his elbow guard at an ungodly rate. My money is on the former, but in the interest of unbiased decision-making, let’s consult Leo Jimenez’s baseball savant page.

The majority of those numbers are not on the right side of the scale. Aside from the launch angle sweet spot and sprint speed, there is not a lot of good to be had on this page. Despite the poor Baseball Savant page, Jimenez ended 2024 with a wOBA and xwOBA right around league average, as seen below.

League Averages in 2024

Leo Jimenez in 2024

Time will tell how Jimenez does at the Major League level, but the peripheral numbers are alarming. I am intriguied to see if Jimenez is able to continue to grow as a ball player at the Major League level, whereever that might be, but I will be more intriguied to see if his trend of wearing pitches continues.

Spencer Bak